Super Bowl Ad Test: Watching Tech’s Bubble Inflate in Real Time

Last night’s Super Bowl felt like déjà vu. Watching tech company after tech company burn through millions on thirty-second spots, I couldn’t shake the memory of 2022’s crypto ad bonanza. Perhaps you recall: FTX had Larry David playing a skeptic throughout history who dismisses every major innovation.

Crypto.com recruited Matt Damon to tell us “fortune favors the brave.”

Within months, Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire collapsed, wiping out billions in customer funds. And the stars put their tails between their legs:

Kudos to the ever-wise Taylor Swift for passing up $100 million to join Matt Damon and Larry David in what ultimately looks like a pretty dumb move.

This year’s lineup had a disconcertingly similar taste. Meta, Squarespace, Claude and Google—tech, and AI in particular, dominated the commercial breaks.

Why are these mega-cap tech companies, who everyone already knows and uses, throwing so much money at advertising to us? Super Bowl ads create mass-market legitimacy and FOMO simultaneously, signaling “we’re so successful” while actually meaning “we need your eyeballs desperately enough to spend $8 - $10 million for one thirty second ad.” Perhaps the companies spending tens of millions to reach mass audiences aren’t confident in organic growth—they’re frantically trying to manufacture it. (Another day, we can digest the ugh factor about these companies spending so much on advertising the same month they laid off thousands of employees in an effort to cut costs). Certainly, this was the case for crypto.com and FTX in 2022. Maybe the clearest sign a company shouldn’t buy a Super Bowl ad is when they feel they need to.

And I take last night’s abundance of AI advertising as a significant warning signal that this AI bubble, although still some potential to continue inflating, is getting ready to pop.

Ironically, the old Larry David FTX ad might have been onto something: DO NOT BE LIKE LARRY DAVID, who not only appeared in the FTX ads for the 2022 Superbowl (opening him to lawsuits when FTX went down), but accepted payment in crypto, which immediately lost most of its value.

Ms. Money is written by Marisa Rothstein, JD, CFP(t), AEP, and Lead Financial Advisor at Siena Private Wealth, A Member of Advisory Services Network, LLC.

Nothing contained in this article should be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. Consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your situation. To learn more about Siena Private Wealth, visit: www.sienaprivate.com. All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. All views/opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views/opinions held by Advisory Services Network, LLC.